Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.367934 0.420200 0.476953 0.543118 0.618101 0.700408 0.797573
2025-08-24 0.289444 0.358086 0.438429 0.539274 0.662339 0.807513 0.991659
2025-08-31 0.230946 0.307460 0.403379 0.532141 0.700163 0.911653 1.197770
2025-09-07 0.194746 0.277616 0.388342 0.546521 0.766066 1.059342 1.480148
2025-09-14 0.156044 0.237441 0.352996 0.528098 0.785697 1.149569 1.701226
2025-09-21 0.129393 0.209360 0.329534 0.521956 0.820809 1.265394 1.974623
2025-09-28 0.107490 0.184366 0.306296 0.511960 0.848082 1.372965 2.251054
2025-10-05 0.095362 0.172664 0.301541 0.529621 0.920260 1.557994 2.672222
2025-10-12 0.082293 0.156975 0.287598 0.529653 0.963192 1.701519 3.045761
2025-10-19 0.072497 0.145296 0.278530 0.536369 1.018005 1.871374 3.486065
2025-10-26 0.065221 0.136984 0.274073 0.550459 1.087559 2.075198 4.012490
2025-11-02 0.055399 0.121897 0.254441 0.532694 1.094901 2.167117 4.345918
2025-11-09 0.045871 0.105950 0.231110 0.505122 1.081523 2.222956 4.628257
2025-11-16 0.039563 0.095728 0.217775 0.495878 1.103709 2.351059 5.071427
2025-11-23 0.034125 0.086409 0.204804 0.485296 1.121559 2.473101 5.520191
2025-11-30 0.030945 0.081786 0.201453 0.495500 1.186087 2.700983 6.223491
2025-12-07 0.026373 0.072826 0.186577 0.476686 1.182515 2.782202 6.620003
2025-12-14 0.023150 0.066661 0.177305 0.469658 1.205193 2.924496 7.172938
2025-12-21 0.020230 0.060701 0.167487 0.459593 1.218931 3.048035 7.699381
2025-12-28 0.018843 0.058713 0.167528 0.474734 1.297434 3.333985 8.649312
2026-01-04 0.016954 0.054883 0.162000 0.474205 1.335714 3.527616 9.399622
2026-01-11 0.015516 0.052110 0.158904 0.479831 1.391150 3.771275 10.308079
2026-01-18 0.014455 0.050294 0.158222 0.492182 1.466807 4.076535 11.415489